Friday, December 4, 2009
Here are the videos (sound might be a bit low but the picture is good)
If you haven't see the videos or know the results, spoilers are below!
Pictures of the Groups:
You could hear the gasps in the crowd when both Cote D'Ivoire and Portugal went into Brazil's Group. South Africa is also unlucky to draw both Mexico and France, arguably the top teams in their respective Pots.
American fans didn't get Group A but must be fairly pleased to be in with weaklings Algeria and Slovenia. Even though Bradley is not impressed.
Italy and Spain in absolute cupcake groups. Should be easy.
Here's the bracket for the 2nd round.
Assuming it's chalk and the top seeds win their groups:
South Africa (A) VS B2
England (C) VS D2
Holland (E) VS F2
Brazil (G) VS H2
would be the top half
Argentina (B) VS A2
Germany (D) VS C2
Italy (F) VS E2
Spain (H) VS G2
would be the bottom half
Bottom half seems stronger at the moment.
If you finish 2nd you move to the other side of the draw.
Some juicy 2nd round matches possible like
More analysis from ESPN
What are your thoughts of the draw? How did your favourite country fare?
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Sacre Bleu! No seed? Zis is an outrage!!
FIFA had determined it's seeding for Friday
Pot 1: South Africa, Argentina, Holland, England, Italy, Brazil, Spain, Germany
Pot 2: (CONCACAF/Asia): USA, Mexico, Honduras, South Korea, North Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand
Pot 3: (South American/Africa): Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile, Nigeria, Cameroon, Ghana, Cote D' Ivoire. Algeria
Pot 4: (Europe): France, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia, Denmark, Switzerland, Greece, Serbia
FIFA decided not to use any complex formulas this time around. They simply took the Oct 2009 rankings.
As anonymous stated in the previous post, FIFA is protecting South Africa ensuring they get one of the weak South American teams and 5/8 chance of getting a weak Asian.
Brazil and Argentina MUST draw an African team.. if they get an strong European team as well, that would be a Group of Death.
USA's only hope is to:
A) Be the first team picked out of Pot 2 and go directly to South Africa's Group
B) Draw a South American instead of an African because US has a 5/8 chance of drawing an African and if they do so 2/5 chance that that Group will have someone named Brazil or Argentina in it.
If the US draws a European team they may survive. If they draw Brazil or Argentina then they must draw another european and african, they're toast.
Overall this draw might screw Brazil and Argentina more than anyone. America fans may feel slighted again but I know for sure there are 24 teams right now shaking in their boots that they don't draw USA.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
The news the last few weeks after all 32 teams have qualified is how will FIFA manipulate the seeding for it's own benefit.
The formula in 2006 was taking the last two World Cups, with the more recent one double the value, and the last 3 years FIFA year-end rankings. This prove to be very fair as the 8 seeds were Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, and Spain, with USA just missing out. Amazingly if Denmark had qualified, they would have been seeded ahead of Argentina because Denmark made the quarters in 1998 and the 2nd round in 2002. Argentina didn't make the 2nd round in 2002.
Making the quarterfinals and beyond of a World Cup puts a country in a good position to be seeded in the next tournament.
I have complied a spreadsheet using the exact same formula for South Africa 2010.
I believe this is very convenient for FIFA as 2006's formula gives them the 8 seeds they want, I would think. The host South Africa, 6 former World Champions (Argentina, Brazil, Italy, England, France, Germany) and the European Champions Spain.
So FIFA would luck out and get brownie points for being consistent and having the big teams seeded. Proving to the media that they did not manipulate anything.
I would also say that FIFA lucks out again because there are exactly 8 European teams remaining. (Portugal, Holland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Denmark, Serbia, Switzerland and Greece). Thus there is no controversy like in 2006 of putting a team (Serbia) in a special pot or anything. The remaining European teams go into Pot 2.
Of the remaining 16 teams, 5 are African, 5 are Asian (I'll make New Zealand Asian), 3 are South American and 3 are North American. FIFA is lucky again because 5 and 3 make 8 so it's easy to geographically make 2 pots of 8.
But the question everyone is asking is... which 3 go with which 5? Because the Asian Confederation is by far the weakest, whichever Group of 3 goes with the Asians would feel very unlucky. Rankings wise, the 3 CONCACAFs are stronger with powerhouses USA and Mexico, consistant World Cup participants. So they should go with the Africans.
Another thing to look at is Brazil and Argentina cannot play a fellow South American. So if the 3 South Americans were to be Grouped with the 5 Africans than and African team MUST be in Brazil and Argentina's group. FIFA tends to like giving Brazil easy draws and with the tournament in Africa, perhaps FIFA wants the Africans to do well... and you do well by avoiding Brazil. Another reason CONCACAF should go with Africa.
So I believe CONCACAF/Africa will be Pot 3 and South America/Asian will be in Group 4. This ensures Brazil gets an Asian team and easier road, which FIFA likes.
Here is my somewhat radical suggestion, I would only have 3 pots. Pots 1 and 2 would be the same as above with Pot 3 being all 16 remaining non-European teams. The 16 teams would simply be drawn left to right while avoiding countries of the same confederation. So using Brazil again, they could get an Asian and an African, an Asian and a CONCACAF or and African and a CONCACAF, like Nigeria and USA. This would make it more exciting I think and no one would be able to complain that seeding wasn't fair cause they're all in the same bowl.
I made a mock draw using my system and random.org and got the following
Group A: South Africa, Holland, USA, Uruguay
Group B: Argentina, Denmark, North Korea, Cameroon
Group C: Germany, Switzerland, Chile, New Zealand
Group D: Brazil, Portugal, Japan, Honduras
Group E: Spain, Slovenia, Ghana, South Korea
Group F: France, Slovakia, Cote D'Ivoire, Mexico
Group G: Italy, Greece, Australia, Algeria
Group H: England, Serbia, Paraguay, Nigeria
What would be your format?
South African actress Charlize Theron will serve as co-host of Friday's World Cup draw in Cape Town, FIFA announced Tuesday.
Theron, who won the Best Actress award at the 2004 Oscars, will join FIFA general secretary Jerome Valcke as co-host of the 90-minute show that will be televised live to an estimated global audience of more than 200 million people in 200 countries.
The draw, which is expected to be attended by around 800 media representatives, will determine the eight first-round groups and the match order for the 32 teams who will contest the FIFA World Cup from June 11 to July 11, 2010.
Theron is just one of a number of dignitaries who will take part in the draw. Others include soccer star David Beckham, South African President Jacob Zuma, and Nobel Peace laureates Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Frederik W. de Klerk
Former South African president and Nobel Peace Prize winner Nelson Mandela, who played a major role in bringing the World Cup to Africa, is expected to address the celebrities and soccer officials via video message.
Looks good. Anyone but Pele! I'm tired of him always being at the draws. Somehow he always gives Brazil an easy group!